近日，英国牛津大学Erin E. Saupe团队揭示了古地理调节着整个显生宙的海洋灭绝风险。这一研究成果于2026年1月15日发表在《科学》杂志上。

解析地球历史上影响物种灭绝强度与选择性的因素，对于解释过去生物多样性的变化以及预测生物对环境变化的响应至关重要。

研究组探讨了过去5.4亿年间海岸线几何构型与古地理边界条件对浅海类群灭绝风险的塑造作用。研究表明，类群的地理分布与大陆边缘几何构型之间的相互作用能持续预测相对灭绝风险：潜在扩散路径长度相对于跨越纬度范围较大的类群（例如沿东西向海岸线、岛屿或内陆海道分布的类群），其灭绝风险始终高于那些具有更直接跨纬度扩散路径的类群。

这种扩散距离选择性在大灭绝事件和极端升温期尤为显著，表明地理限制在气候剧变时期的影响更为突出。该研究结果揭示了古生代灭绝率普遍偏高的另一种潜在机制——该时期以复杂的内陆海域和占主导地位的东西向海岸线为特征。这些发现强调了解读历史灭绝模式时考虑古地理背景的重要性，并为现有物种灭绝风险评估的基本假设提供了实证支持。、

附：英文原文

Title: Paleogeography modulates marine extinction risk throughout the Phanerozoic

Author: Cooper M. Malanoski, Seth Finnegan, Edward C. Huang, Lila Blake, Connal Mac Niocaill, Erin E. Saupe

Issue&Volume: 2026-01-15

Abstract: Understanding the factors that have influenced the intensity and selectivity of extinction throughout Earth’s history is important for explaining past biodiversity change and forecasting biotic responses to environmental change. Here, we investigated the role of coastline geometry and paleogeographic boundary conditions in shaping extinction risk for shallow-marine taxa over the past 540 million years. We show that interactions between the geographic distributions of taxa and the geometric configurations of continental margins consistently predict relative extinction risk: Taxa with potential dispersal pathways that are long relative to the range of latitude traversed—such as those that occur along east-west–oriented coastlines, islands, or inland seaways—consistently exhibit higher extinction risk than taxa with potential dispersal pathways that provide more direct latitude-traversing paths. This dispersal distance selectivity is amplified during mass extinction events and hyperthermal intervals, suggesting that geographic constraints become more important during periods of rapid climate change. Our results provide another mechanism that potentially contributes to the generally elevated extinction rates during the Paleozoic, an interval characterized by complex inland seas and a preponderance of east-west coastlines. These insights underscore the importance of considering paleogeographic context when interpreting past extinction patterns and provide empirical support for assumptions that underlie extinction risk assessments of extant species.

DOI: adv2627

Source: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adv2627